The Future, Vol. 2
We are all doomed.
Here’s the flip side to my last post. This will probably sound more like the typical tadfad content you’re used to. I’ll cut to the chase: The looming energy crisis that will come to define the 21st century is simply unavoidable. It is far too late to begin coming up with a strategy to combat the catastrophic forces lurking just around the corner. Worse, we simply don’t have enough remaining energy to successfully implement a new energy infrastructure.
Those are some pretty bold statements to be throwing around willy-nilly. I’d better back them up with something resembling logic.
First, let me establish the fact that there is a coming energy emergency. This is pretty easy–the majority (85% give or take) of the energy we use worldwide comes from three sources: oil, coal and natural gas. All three are very energy-dense, meaning you get a lot of bang for your burn. All three are also rich in carbon, so burning them releases a substantial amount of carbon, in the form of carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere. And here’s the kicker: All three are finite resources that are near or past their production peak (with the exception of coal, which has another 50 years or so).
The economics and politics of a peaking resource are fascinating. The resource does not simply “run out”. We’re never going to pump the last barrel of oil out of the ground and then say “okay, we’re done”. Far from it. Instead, oil production will gradually become more difficult, more expensive, and more susceptible to political shenanigans. The real tricky part is that we won’t know when peak production occurs until a year or two later. Near peak, we will experience a period of price and supply fluctuation as oil companies try desperately to uncover new oil sources and take advantage of high prices. At the same time, our government will [likely] be in a state of denial about the reality of the situation and start making desperate moves. (Think: the invasion of a Middle Eastern nation under false pretense.) All the while, worldwide demand will be growing while the supply continues to shrink.
Maybe the free market will save the day. But more realistically, the free market simply lacks the power to fix this problem. The market saved the day when we moved from wood to coal and from coal to oil, but this time around it’s going to be much different–we don’t have a new, cheap, plentiful energy resource to turn to. The oft-cited “hydrogen economy” is a myth; hydrogen requires energy to create. (We can’t drill for hydrogen!) Renewable energies will play a role, but I’m at a loss for how we can run an oil-based economy on wind, solar, hydro, and other renewables.
Worse, it may already be too late. Consider: It takes X amount of energy to produce a wind turbine or a solar panel or a hydroelectric dam. To replace the energy lost when oil and natural gas become economically impossible, we would need to expand our renewable infrastructure by 875%. Imagine how much pure energy is required to build, install, and maintain such a vast infrastructure. Where is it going to come from? Now factor in the political capitol required, the updates to our aging transmission lines, and the added dilemma of how to power transportation vehicles with renewable electricity and you can begin to see the awesome size of the dilemma we are facing.
Can the market alone fix our problems? Will any future president have the courage to face the facts and risk Carter’s fate? What about global climate change and the added costs and problems associated with it? It is foolish to imagine that the power of a free market will magically solve our pending energy emergency.
Future historians will look back and this time and wonder, “did they see it coming?”
Filed under Uncategorized : Comments (0) : Sep 28th, 2005 by tadfad
